IS UBER REPLACING THE NEW YORK YELLOW TAXI TRADITION?

1) More Trips Per Day

The trends of yellow taxi’s trips per day in 2013 compared with 2014 show a drastic difference of 19,945 trips. This difference appears to be a product of the increasing 26,787 trips Uber and Lyft made in 2014. This change observed over one year time frame serves as a good establishing ground for future trends of the two services.

Zooming out to some fresh data from 2020, the difference becomes more pronounced. The average monthly trips for yellow taxi and Uber differ by around 6,565,801 trips where Uber is making more monthly trips than yellow taxis.

The gap does not represent a lack of demand for these services, but rather alludes to the way Uber has invested in more vehicles and trips per day compared to taxi.

This surge of Uber in Manhattan can be linked to the centrality of Manhattan as the hub of tourist attractions, as well as its financial and commercial value.

While Uber takes over the heart of New York, it seems like New York too, emerges as one of Uber’s biggest markets in USA. With approximately 30,000 new users trying their first Ubers every week , it appears that something about Uber appealed more to Yorkers compared to the For Hire yellow taxis (slate).

3) Influx of New Vehicles

Tracing the number of new dispatched vehicles over the course of 2015-2021, there is a stark contrast in the vehicles introduced by each service in the market. Uber’s dramatic boom from around 240,000 new vehicles in 2015 sees an exponential growth till mid 2018 with around 860,0000 new vehicles being dispatched. On the other hand, from 2015 till 2018, new yellow taxis making their way on the roads see a reduction of 15,844 taxis.  

Does it mean drivers and investors are flooding Uber’s market? Or is there something more to it?

2) Trip-ing to the Heart of New York

While Uber trips present a rising trend, this surge also seems to be coming from geographically specific factors. Uber trips to the five main boroughs; Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, Staten island, and Manhattan stem from the lack of yellow taxi services making trips to the outer boroughs. Uber appeared to acknowledge the absence and tackled it by expanding their services to and from these boroughs. Out of the five boroughs, 73% of Uber’s trips in 2015 were saturated in Manhattan alone – the heart of New York.

While there has been a steep rise in Uber’s trips and vehicles in New York till early 2019, it is also noteworthy to question the sharp decline in Uber’s activity 2019 onwards. The decline here alludes to two very key factors:

1) Murder of a student of University of South Carolina.

2) Rising COVID-19 cases in New York

Rising Safety Concerns Relating to Uber

With increasing number of vehicles and drivers, the Uber trajectory also faced increasing safety issues. On March 31, 2019 the murder of a student from USC brought a major hit to the ride-hailing service. The girl had got into a car having mistaken it for her ordered Uber. This report raised questions about Uber’s safety particularly with the increasing vehicles around New York. Law makers urged Uber and other app-based services to “display illuminated stickers on their windshields to make it easier for riders to identify vehicles driving for the service.” (The State)

Does this timeline sound familiar?

Rise of COVID-19 also functions as a factor impacting the transport industry. In the case of Uber, the trips fell from 9,836,763 in March to 3,102,835 trips my April. This decline corresponds to the COVID-19 cases that had peaked in April with 12,274 new cases reported on April 4 alone.

What can we predict about the future of Yellow Taxis in New York?

The timeline for yellow taxi's trips per day over the last three years presents a steep decline. From 282,565 trips per day in 2018, the number and decreased to 48,499 trips per day in 2021. This might be hinting at a serious threat to the services of yellow taxis that are being replaced by Uber on the streets on New York.

What do these developments tell us about transportation trends? A single lines answer would say: they are always changing.

The shift of New York’s street culture from horse drawn carts to Yellow Taxis in early 1900’s marked an epoch in the city’s culture. Yellow Taxis gradually overthrew the ‘tradition’ and have been in the New York spotlight for years.

Followingly, the emerging shift to Uber and app-based car services from yellow taxi and FHV might be the next transition. This raises a question on why the need of such a transition surfaces when the transport model appears to be quite similar?

The common theme in both transportation shifts appears to be the preference for comfort and accessibility. In the case of Uber vs Yellow Taxi discussion, the convenience factors can be mapped onto the following:

1) Uber provides fare estimates whereas yellow taxis have no system of pre-calculated fares.

2) Different classes of service offered by Uber with different price structures.

3) Different options for payment: through cash, credit card or other payment applications.

4) Upgraded vehicles in Uber while there is little or no choice in the type of yellow taxi.

5) You do not have to spend time hailing a taxi on the street; with Uber, the ride is a tap away!